مقاله جدید استرمن در مجله Science. مقاله کلا دو صفحه است. اما بر مبنای کارهای پنج شش سال اخیر جان و گروهش است...
کلا یک نوشته نسبتا ساده است در مورد این که چرا مشکل "گرمایش جهانی" به وسیله عموم (public) جدی گرفته نمی شود. جان آن را به یکی از نقاط ضعف انسان ها که ضعف در تفکیک متغیرهای Stock و Flow است نسبت می دهد که این امر می تواند منجر به رفتار غیر عقلایی شود. این ضعف را قبلا در یک سری آزمایش هایی که انجام داده بود ثابت کرده بود. ارتباط یک مشکل سیاست گذاری به یک پدیده کاملا micro جالب است.
6 comments:
can you please explain more the concept of accumulation?
think about the simpe example of "birth" and "death" rates vs "population". population is the accumulation of birth minus death. population is a stock and birth and death are flows. You can give a similar explanation for all variables in the world, and every thing can be considered either as a flow or as a stock.
The point is that people intuitively assume the same pattern for stock and flows, or the same pattern for inflow and outflows, or even they don't differentiate them.
An example: There was a piece of news that last year the most used name in Iran in nameing babies was Abol-fazl. A friend of mine said so why I don't see lots of "Abol-fazl"s around. Simply he was assuming that the flow and the stock change together in the same rate...
Very interesting, thanks for the link.
I guess this is a more beautiful interpretation of the concept he came up with in his well-known paper on behavioral causes of Bullwhip effect (1989). There he concluded that people tend to underweight the supply line (orders placed, but not have yet been received). This can be viewed as they see the low "stock", and tend to think that not enough incoming "flow" is on the way, based on the low level of inventory. Thus they order even more.
I don't know how good it fits there, but enjoyed the idea anyway.
:-)
thank u for the clear explanation, so do u mean your bud doesn't see a lots of Abolfazl around because people with the name Abolfazl die with a greater rate?
I'd say your friend doesn't see a lots of Abolfazl, because people with the name Abolfazl usually are from lower class families and/ or rural areas but your friend doesn't necessarily deal with this class or this group of people in his every day life.
The second comment of yours can be correct. But my point is that becasue this year we have had, say, 7% more babies with the name of abol-fazl, it doesn't mean that the stock of people will change that fast. If people live in average for 70 years, that 7% change in the inflow rate will influence the name distribution in the country for only 0.1% (a very rough estimation). That's pretty a small number.
So the point is that change in "inflow/outflow rates" is not the same as change in "stock." That may seem very simple, but data shows people really have problem in understanding that...
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